The Treasury Department released its semi-annual report on foreign currency practices on November 28, and Secretary John Snow said it did not name China as a currency manipulator. Snow indicated that Beijing avoided this designation largely by virtue of the steps it took earlier this year to liberalize its exchange rate regime, but warned that this could change next spring if China does not take further reform measures.
The 1988 Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act requires Treasury to report on whether countries manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the US dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustment or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade. According to Snow, Monday’s report found that no major US trading partner meets this standard. The Bush Administration has been under increasing pressure from lawmakers and US industry groups to designate China as a currency manipulator, which would have required bilateral consultations and could have led to the imposition of trade sanctions. However, Treasury officials had suggested for months that such a designation was not forthcoming, noting that currency valuation is only one of many factors in the growing US trade deficit with China. In a likely attempt to head off the expected protests from Capitol Hill, Snow said the report includes a special annex that “highlights the complexity of reaching judgments on this issue” and “shows that no one indicator or set of indicators can provide determinative evidence.”
Snow applauded China for the steps it took in July to increase exchange rate flexibility, saying they were largely responsible for the report’s determination. Whether or not that determination will be sustained in the next report is “contingent on further progress to incorporate flexibility reflecting underlying market forces in China’s [yuan] exchange rate,” he said, noting that such progress has not been apparent so far. “The actual operation of the new system is highly constricted. As a result, the distortions and risks created by China’s rigid exchange rate still persist…It is imperative that China move towards greater flexibility as quickly as possible.”
Snow said the Treasury report also calls on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to intensify its efforts to promote greater flexibility in exchange rates for China and other large emerging Asian economies. The report urges the IMF to provide a comprehensive report on these issues, including associated policy assessments, on an expedited basis. Treasury will also explore possible proposals for reforms in IMF exchange rate surveillance procedures.
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